Monday, October 6, 2014

My Average Observation in the Insurance Journal


Recently, I've been trying to catch up on some readings in the classics.  I love revisiting what was said in the past and consider it in the context of the present and what is said about the future.  It's sort of remarkable how much things remain the same or how today is a caricature of past foresights.

For instance, was George Orwell really that far off?  I'd say the Jetsons characterize today pretty well too...  

In any case, one of these classics, The once and future school of public policy, was by the legendary political scientists, Aaron Wildavsky.  I know I read this for class while in graduate school, but I've found that things take on new depth of meaning after school and one has the patience to more fully consider the words people use.

Amongst, Wildavsky's thoughtful comments, he pointed out the following,
The best bet always is that the future will be like the past plus or minus 5 percent.
This was not the main lesson of the article, but nonetheless.

Today, I have an opinion in the Insurance Journal that falls in line with Wildavsky's observation of life for the most part.

Based on the data provided in charts by Dr. Hartwig of the III, I argue that by adding some context it would appear that future insurance profitability peaks will be, like the past, about average.

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